Computational Analysis of Economic and Environmental Impacts of Energy Policies in Pakistan: A Statistical Approach
Download| Volume 4 Issue 1 2023 | |
|---|---|
| Author(s): |
Muhammad Iqbal iqbaliqbalu2015@gmail.com Akhtar Hamid Hussain Muhammad Ali |
| Abstract | The prevailing opinion in the present day is that petroleum/oil is a significant driving force behind economic progress and development. As a result, its usage has become increasingly crucial for both the advancement of society and the growth of businesses. The current study aimed to construct a robust model that could accurately predict future oil/petroleum usage in Pakistan, with a particular focus on its utilization. The research analyzed data on oil/petroleum consumption (P.C), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and population from 1972 to 2020. The findings indicated a strong correlation between the P.C of various sectors such as transport, industrial, power, and others, with the population data of Pakistan. The correlation values for these sectors were respectively 0.974, 0.646, 0.826, and -0.680. Additionally, there was a similar correlation between the P.C of these same sectors and Pakistan's GDP. The correlation values for these sectors were respectively 0.934, 0.474, 0.740, and -0.520. These results suggest that population and GDP are vital factors that impact gas and oil/petroleum consumption patterns in various sectors of Pakistan's economy. The study employed multiple linear regressions to examine the relationship between gas demand, population, and GDP in Pakistan. The goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the polynomial model was the best fit for population and GDP. Based on this model, the study estimated that oil/petroleum demand in Pakistan would be 26345308.86 (tons) in 2025, 29023960.17 (tons) in 2030, 31753738.11 (tons) in 2035, 34534646.46 (tons) in 2040, and so on. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the various factors that influence gas consumption in Pakistan. This information can be used to identify how gas is produced and distributed across the country. The study also highlights the importance of considering the effects of population growth and economic development on gas usage when planning to address the gas crisis in Pakistan. The insights gleaned from this study can have far-reaching implications in areas such as Gas, healthcare, planning, growth, and other related fields. |
| Keywords | energy in Pakistan, petroleum/oil, the petroleum/oil sector, economic growth, petroleum/oil crises, multiple regression modeling, demands forecasting |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 4 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Type | Research paper, manuscript, article |
| Recognized by | Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, HEC | Category | "-" | Journal Name | ILMA Journal of Technology & Software Management | Publisher Name | ILMA University | Jel Classification | - | DOI | - | ISSN no (E, Electronic) | 2709-2240 | ISSN no (P, Print) | 2790-590X | Country | Pakistan | City | Karachi | Institution Type | University | Journal Type | Open Access | Manuscript Processing | Blind Peer Reviewed | Format | Paper Link | https://ijtsm.ilmauniversity.edu.pk/arc/Vol4/i1/pdf5.pdf | Page | 1-7 |